Market Insights: Last Week in Review with Rusty Vanneman, Vol. 75

Last week was another negative week for the markets. The overall US Market lost about 1% (Morningstar, July 2022).

• TheTen-year Treasury yields last week finished at 2.90% (down 0.17% over the last week).  Last week’s high was 3.10% (Yahoo! Finance, July 2022).
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased last week to 5.73% as of July 15 (Bankrate, July 2022).
• The yield to maturity on theBloomberg Aggregate Bond Index was 3.72% as of July 15^th. The June 14^th high of 4.03% (Bloomberg, July 2022).
• Theaverage money market yield is 1.27% as of July 17, 2022 (Crane Data, July 2022).

Deeper Dive 

For the year, there is still a lot of dark red in terms of returns. The only bright spots, at least in terms of absolute returns, and despite sharp underperformance of late, include energy stocks and commodity prices (Morningstar, July 2022).

• The US Market is down about 20% (Morningstar, July 2022).
• Growth stocks are down 32%, Value stocks down 7% (Morningstar, July 2022).
• The overall bond aggregate index is down about 10% (Morningstar, July 2022).
• Commodities are up about 15%, and energy stocks are still up about 25% (Morningstar, July 2022).

One market doing well this year: the US Dollar. It’s at 20-year highs versus many currencies (First Trust, July 2022). Why is the US Dollar doing so well? Here are some potential reasons, according to First Trust’s July 14, 2022 report:

• First, the US economic recovery has been stronger than pretty much anywhere else in the world (First Trust, July 2022).
• Second, the war in Ukraine has caused a flight into US currency. We are the security umbrella for Europe and have the best defense companies in the world, a resource that now seems to be carrying a much bigger priority abroad (First Trust, July 2022).
• The US energy sector also looks set to displace Russia’s market share in Europe as well (First Trust, July 2022).
• Finally, the Federal Reserve is raising rates while our biggest competitors in the currency space, Japan and Europe, continue to be remarkably dovish despite the global nature of the inflation problem (First Trust, July 2022).

Over the last year, commodity prices are now well off their highs (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com, July 9, 2022). On his July 9 blog, Mark Rzepczynski posted a list of how much commodity markets are off their 52 week highs:

But as we know, stocks have been hit hard too. As Ben Carlson states in his July 7, 2022 article, What Should Investors Buy in a Bear Market?, on “A Wealth of Common Sense”:

• “The Russell 3000, a representative index of the entire U.S. stock market has more than 2,700 companies in it. Nearly 800 of those companies or around one-tenth of the total, are down 90% or worse from their all-time highs right now. One in five stocks are down 80% or worse from record highs.”

Last week’s economic numbers, according to First Trust’s July 13 report, included:

• June CPI (Consumer Price Index)was up 9.1% year-over-year and was above expectations. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core CPI” was still up 5.9% year-over-year (First Trust, July 2022).
• Consumer prices soared 1.3% in June, the largest monthly increase in more than a decade, pushing the year-ago comparison to a new post-COVID peak of 9.1%, the highest in more than four decades (First Trust, July 2022).
• Real average weekly earnings are down 4.4% in the past year (First Trust, July 2022).
• Notably, rental prices for actual tenants had the largest monthly increase since 1986. Rents have been a key driver for inflation in 2022, and should continue to do so in 2023-24 because they make up more than 30% of the overall CPI and still have a long way to go to catch up to home prices, which skyrocketed during COVID (First Trust, July 2022).
• Since February 2020 (pre-COVID), consumer prices are up at a 5.8% annual rate and core prices are up at a 4.3% rate (First Trust, July 2022).
• June PPI (Producer Price Index)was up 11.3% year-over-year and was above expectations. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, “core PPI” was still up 8.2% year-over-year (First Trust, July 2022).
• In better news, initial unemployment claims rose 9,000 last week to 244,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell 41,000 to 1.331 million. “These numbers suggest continued healthy job growth in July.” (First Trust, July 2022)

Why is the housing market holding strong? Bloomberg: Surging Home Prices Driven By Demand Not Supply (Bloomberg, July 2022).

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow ‘s estimate for real (“after-inflation”) GDP growth (which uses actual economic data for inputs) decreased last week. It now estimates for the second quarter 2022 GDP to be -1.5% as of July 15, 2022, down from an estimate of -1.2% as of July 8, 2022 (GDPNow, July 2022).

It’s a bit of a slow week for this week’s economic schedule. We’ll get some housing data points throughout the week, then receive June’s unemployment data on Friday, July 22 (Calculated Risk, July 2022).

It has now been five straight weeks of price drops for the average gas price (AAA, July 2022). It moved down to $4.52 (down another 15 cents from the prior week) as of July 15, 2022. This is coming off the highest ever recorded average of $5.01 recorded on June 14, 2022 (AAA, July 2022).

As for earnings, second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to grow by just under 6%, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv on July 15, 2022. The third- and fourth quarter estimates have been moving down slightly, but are still 10.7% and 10.5%, respectively (Refinitiv, July 2022).

• According to FactSet, as of July 15, about 7% of S&P companies have reported Q2 2022 earnings results and 60% of those companies have reported a positive EPS (earnings per share) surprise (FactSet, July 2022).
• Also according to FactSet, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is currently 4.2% for the companies who have reported thus far. If 4.2% is the final figure for the quarter, it will be the lowest earnings rate reported since Q4 2022 (4.0%) (FactSet, July 2022).

In the soon to be updated OPS Quarterly Reference Guide, look out for some new content around stocks vs. bonds, stocks vs. commodities, and fresh stats on inflation (Orion Portfolio Solutions, July 2022).

Crypto Corner – Grant Engelbart, CFA, CAIA, Brinker Capital Sr. Portfolio Manager

• Cryptocurrency prices managed to post another week of gains through Sunday afternoon. Bitcoin rose just under 1% for the week, but Ethereum surged 15% to $1,300. Solana +4.5%, Polygon +32.5%, and Avalanche +10% also posted strong gains (Decrypt, July 2022).
• Credit-related crypto troubles continue to make headlines, with Celsius filing for Bankruptcy. Blockchain.com announced they took a hit on a $270 million loan to now defunct Three Arrows Capital, the hedge fund at the center of this mess. June CPI coming in above forecast hit crypto and stocks midweek. However, there are signs correlation continues to drop between stocks and cryptocurrency, as the NASDAQ-to-Bitcoin correlation is now near the lowest point this year (Arcane, July 2022).
• Digital Asset ETF activity was pretty light last week. Many trust products that trade at discounts saw those discounts compress as they week went on (CoinMarketCap, July 2022).

Additional Resources  

A two-fer from James Clear (JamesClear.com, July 14, 2022):

• “Knowledge is making the right choice with all the information. Wisdom is making the right choice without all the information”
• “Treat every opportunity like a great opportunity, and you may find a few of them to be just that.”

On a recent industry podcast (Model FA, July 2022), a listener noted on LinkedIn how the “legendary Daniel Crosby” mentioned a study related to how investing alone is really hard without a guide and a plan.

This week’s Orion’s The Weighing Machine podcast was a real treat hearing from arguably our profession/industry’s leading thought leader @ChipRoame from Tiburon Advisors. Chip walks us through the five big takeaways from his last Tiburon CEO Summit keynote presentation. In short, they deal with where our industry is going and how fast it’s going there. If you’re interested in where the industry growth will come from, this is a must-listen.

A cautionary financial tale: My Parent’s Neighbor’s House Caught Fire (Best Interest, June 2022). A handful of good tips, including: Don’t store lots of money in your house.

What is the most recorded song of all-time? If you guessed “Yesterday” by The Beatles, that’s a good guess. It’s been recorded over 4000 times (Roadiemuisc.com, June 2020). “Amazing Grace” would be a better guess. Nearly 7000 different recordings (Roadiemuisc.com, June 2020). The best guess of all though – with nearly 68,000 recordings (!!!) – is “Summertime” by George Gershwin (Roadiemuisc.com, June 2020). Check out the Ella Fitzgerald version of “Summertime” on YouTube. Note other artists have songs called Summertime that are different, including Kenny Chesney and Orville Peck.

Peter Shen took an awesome picture that could probably tell a few stories. It’s the amateur award winning photo from this year’s 2022 Audubon Photography Award Winners (Audobon, July 2022).

Thanks for reading and have a great week!  As always, please let us know what we can do better at rusty@orion.com or ben.vaske@orion.com. Invest well and be well. 

1263-OPS-7/19/2022

The CFA is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org.

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